Monitoring Factors that Impact Operations using the PMESII Framework and Recorded Future

 

Monitoring factors that can impact your organization’s activities is always important to maintaining consistent, safe, and efficient operations; regardless of it you are a regional corporation or a military combatant command. One way to do that effectively is to break these potentially impactful factors down into operational variables and to apply the PMESII-PT framework to help understand, prevent, or mitigate their consequences.

 

The PMESII-PT Framework

According to United States’ Army Doctrine Publication ADP-5.0: The Operations Process, “Commanders and staffs use the eight interrelated operational variables — political, military, economic, social, information, infrastructure, physical environment, and time (known as PMESII-PT) — to help understand an Operational Environment.”  These operational variables aid in the ability to understand their environment by analyzing relevant information pertaining to various military and non-military factors with the potential to impact their success. It's important to note, that while these variables were born out of military doctrine, they are also applicable to any organization planning or conducting operations or activities related to their business.

Recorded Future’s Geopolitical Intelligence Module contains applicable components to help analysts surface information pertaining to all eight of the variables in the PMESII-PT framework.  The PMESII-PT Operational Variables can easily be monitored by leveraging Recorded Future’s Watch Lists, Threat Views, and Risk Scores; the Global Issues Team’s Geopolitical Intelligence reporting, and elements of our Advanced Query.

 

Watch Lists, Threat Views, and Risk Scores:

The easiest way to monitor events related to the operational variables is to use the Locations Watch List.  The Watch List can contain countries, cities, or other locations relevant to the area where operations are or will be conducted. This also provides the benefit of being able to monitor events like coups, attacks (terrorist, military, or otherwise), and violent protests that could have a significant impact on operations by virtue of Recorded Future’s Location Risk Rules and Risk Scores (which are updated in real-time!).

Here’s an example of a Locations by Risk Level Threat View monitoring Global Risk: ![monitoring-factors-pmesii-framework-image-0.png](https://cms.recordedfuture.com/uploads/monitoring_factors_pmesii_framework_image_0_4b7b837dfd.png)

 

By using this Threat View, you can monitor risk triggered by specific events impacting the operational environment. Think of this as an army of researchers scouring the surface, deep, and dark web (Recorded Future’s 900k+ sources) that never takes a break or sleeps (24x7x365 automated collection and processing) for evidence something significant happened (Risk Rules) and raising their hands to let you know to look at THIS location (Risk Scores).  You are also able to create alerts from the Threat View panels which can send an email or mobile push notification within 5 minutes of a Risk Rule being triggered (or at longer intervals if desired).

Recorded Future’s Location Risk Rules will also help contextualize risk in the operational environment over time with the addition of our temporally-based Risk Rules and Risk Rules triggered on the multiple occurrences of events (one violent protest or one suicide bombing is bad, but multiple violent protests or suicide bombings is worse).

Here’s a snapshot of the complete list of Location Risk Rules Recorded Future monitors:

 

![monitoring-factors-pmesii-framework-image-1.png](https://cms.recordedfuture.com/uploads/monitoring_factors_pmesii_framework_image_1_a089a6de0f.png)

 

Any of these Risk Rules will produce a Risk Score depending on which Risk Rule was triggered.  This Risk Score can be easily investigated on Recorded Future’s Intelligence Cards.

Here’s an example of the City Intelligence Card for Tel Aviv on 14 May 2021:

 

![monitoring-factors-pmesii-framework-image-2.png](https://cms.recordedfuture.com/uploads/monitoring_factors_pmesii_framework_image_2_542ff464b2.png)

 

Here we can see that the current Risk Score is 79 which is considered High. If we navigate a little further down the Intelligence Card, we can further investigate the 10 triggered Risk Rules:

 

![monitoring-factors-pmesii-framework-image-3.png](https://cms.recordedfuture.com/uploads/monitoring_factors_pmesii_framework_image_3_3f80a57392.png)

You will notice the 60-day history of which severity levels were triggered per day which can help put current events into context against events in the last 2 months.  You can also see the basic context around the triggered Risk Rules such as the sources and most recent Tweet.  Each triggered Risk Rule will also have a pivot link that will take you to the Table View visualization to dig deeper into the supporting evidence.

 

Geopolitical Insikt Reporting

The Insikt Group’s Global Issues Team can also help monitor operational variables.  The Global Issues Team produces all the geopolitical Finished Intelligence on geopolitics, physical security, extremism, terrorism, and information operations in the Geopolitical Intelligence Module.

  • Geopolitical Flash Event: Brief summary of a current geopolitical event.
  • Geopolitical Intelligence Summary: Detailed analysis of significant geopolitical events and patterns.
  • Geopolitical Profile: Summary profile of a geopolitical entity such as a piece of equipment, a political figure, or an organization.
  • Geopolitical Threat Forecast: Forward-looking assessment regarding a geopolitical event that may occur.
  • Geopolitical Validated Event: Concise validation by the Insikt Group of a geopolitical event that has taken place, such as a terrorist attack.

Finished Intelligence from the Global Issues Team is accessible on the Geopolitical Module’s home screen, on Intelligence Cards, and is even searchable using the Advanced Query Builder. The Global Issues Team also supports Analyst-On-Demand (AOD) if AOD Credits are purchased by the customer.

 

Using the Advanced Query Builder

The Geopolitical Intelligence Module also provides access to Recorded Future’s Advanced Query Builder which is the primary way to conduct specific queries tailored to surface relevant information from Recorded Future’s 75+ Billion references.

Event Types, Entity Types, Entity Categories, and Source Types are all elements of our Advanced Search capabilities that can support monitoring PMESII-PT Operational Variables in Recorded Future.

Here’s a quick breakdown of where Recorded Future overlaps with PMESII-PT (some elements will fall into multiple categories of operational variables):

 

Event Types

Political

Military

Economic

Social

Infrastructure

Information

Physical Environment

Time

Coup

Armed Attack

Arms Trade

Protest

Man-made Disaster

Public Safety Warning

Environmental Issue

Event Time*

Election

Military Maneuver

Environmental Issue

Environmental Issue

Traffic Accident

Mention

Natural Disaster

Publish Time*

Legislation

Terrorist Attack

Natural Disaster

Natural Disaster

Terrorist Attack

 

Disease Outbreak

 

Political Endorsement

 

Extinction

Extinction

Nuclear Material Transmission

 

Man-made Disaster

 

Political Event

 

Disease Outbreak

Disease Outbreak

Radiological Material Transmission

 

Extinction

 

Poll Result

 

Man-made Disaster

Person Threat

 

 

 

 

Voting Result

 

Terrorist Attack

Terrorist Attack

 

 

 

 

Person Threat

 

Nuclear Material Transmission

 

 

 

 

 

Terrorist Attack

 

Radiological Material Transmission

 

 

 

 

 

Arms Trade

 

Environmental Issue

 

 

 

 

 

Diplomatic Relations

 

Natural Disaster

 

 

 

 

 

Political Relations

 

Extinction

 

 

 

 

 

Extinction

 

Disease Outbreak

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Entity Types

Political

Military

Economic

Social

Infrastructure

Information

Physical Environment

Time

Any Embassy

Any Military Base

Any Company

Any Emoji

Any Airport

Any Person

Any Continent

Event Time*

Any Province or State

Any Military Conflict

Any Industry

Any Hashtag

Any Facility

Any Organization

Any Region

Publish Time*

Any Organization

Any Vessel

Any Product

Any Username

Any Port/Harbor

 

Any Country

 

 

 

Any Commodity

Any Twitter Handle

Any Military Base

 

Any City

 

 

 

Any Technology

 

 

 

Any Neighborhood

 

 

 

Any Vessel

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded Future also has curated Entity Categories containing hundreds for grouped entities in over 150 specific industries, economic sectors, and government sectors.        

 

 

Source Types

Political

Military

Economic

Social

Infrastructure

Information

Physical Environment

Time

Government

Blog

Company & Industry

Mainstream News

Company & Industry

Blog

Blog

Event Time*

Non-Government Organization

 

Blog

News

Blog

Mainstream News

 

Publish Time*

Blog

 

Financial Research

Forum - All

 

Financial Research

 

 

 

 

 

Social Media

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Messaging Platforms

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public Messaging

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Multimedia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Blog

 

 

 

 

* Event Time and Publish TIme are fields you can set in an Advanced Query, not a specific Event, Entity, or Source Type.

 

There are numerous combinations of the way these elements can be combined to surface information. Here is an example of a Timeline Visualization depicted events relevant to PMESII Operational Variables for the last 4 weeks related to Colombia:

 

![monitoring-factors-pmesii-framework-image-4.png](https://cms.recordedfuture.com/uploads/monitoring_factors_pmesii_framework_image_4_35b550e05a.png)

Note how in this visualization, we have each operational variable displayed on its own timeline.  This allows us to compare the occurrence of different events over time, revealing the interconnection of the operational variables from one event to another. This view can also be annotated, shared inside of Recorded Future or outside of it, or even exported as a picture, Powerpoint file, or PDF document.  Alerts can also be created with the same parameters that produced this visualization.

 

Bottom Line:

The PMESII-PT framework has demonstrated value to U.S. Army commanders and their staffs to visualize Operational Variables to facilitate situational awareness during the Operations Process. This framework can be applied to monitoring important factors and variables that can affect not only military but non-military (corporate, commercial) operations. Recorded Future’s Geopolitical Intelligence Modules’s emphasis on Location Monitoring and other core features can help surface information and intelligence related to political, military, economic, social, infrastructure, information, the physical environment, and time pertaining to any operation.