Will Iranian Government Fracture as Rial Falls?

Posted: 2nd October 2012
Will Iranian Government Fracture as Rial Falls?

Less than a year from the end of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s term the rial has fallen precipitously in value, and the relationship between president and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remain badly strained. Yesterday, Ahmadinejad’s cameraman was reported to have defected to the US.

Below, you can see a network of connections between Ahmadinejad, Khamenei, and Heydar Moslehi, head of the Ministry of Intelligence and National Security whose role in government was a major factor in dividing the once close president and supreme leader. The live network can be viewed here.

Ties for Moslehi that we don’t find in Ahmadinejad network include: Behzad Abdoli, who said he was taken to a training camp to train for assassinations, Syria’s director of intelligence Ali Mamluk, commander of the Quds Force Major General Qasem Suleimani, and Saudi Crown Prince Nayef. One link unique to Ahmadinejad, heads of state aside, is Mahmoud al-Zahar, co-founder of Hamas, although the relationship is noted as being one of conflicting strategies with regards to compromising with western states.

One final thought: Moslehi has been very quiet publicly during recent weeks. You can see his timeline over the last twelve months.

How do you think this most recent depreciation in the currency will impact Iranian foreign policy? Will anything come from the questioning of Ahmadinejad by the country’s parliament? Could the government actually divide between Ahmadinejad and Khamenei with Moslehi emerging as a more prominent figure?