Tracking Syrian Civil War Spillover

Posted: 24th June 2013
By: S3
 Tracking Syrian Civil War Spillover

The Syrian Civil War has generated regional unrest and a two month evaluation of Open Source information (OSINT) underscores this sentiment. This is the first in a series of postings which use Recorded Future to track the spread of protest, violence and military responses to the on-going crisis.

Analyzing both English, Arabic and Russian-sourced OSINT (May 1 – June 30, 2013), we can see the conflict’s regional effect, ranging from border area bombings (Reyhanli, Turkey) to growing international challenges (the disputed Golan Heights region). The above analysis demonstrates Turkish military movements, Syrian/Israeli missile deployments and Russian influence.

The most significant “spillover” is seen in Shi’a Islamic militant group Hizballah’s late May 2013 announced entrance into the conflict on the side of the Assad Regime. The below two-year analysis demonstrates the growth of Hizballah’s involvement, which also includes support from Iran’s Qods Force (IRGC-QF). This presents further challenges as Israel has publicly declared a campaign to keep advanced weaponry out of the hands of Hizballah. This campaign has reportedly included the May 2013 bombing of targets in Damascus.

The next posting in this series will focus on the growing tension in the Golan Heights.