Source Credibility: Predicting Names of Apple Products
By Jason Hines on January 28, 2010
For many organizations and companies, being able to validate and judge credibility of sources is very important – e.g. for financial investors and intelligence analysts. Back in June last year, just after the launch of the iPhone 3GS we wrote a piece about the Apple stock price before their WWDC conference and found that John Gruber was the best source in terms of calling the new iPhone name.
P. S. S posing the query Quotation ‘iPhone 3Gs’ we can now find out also that John Gruber had heard that the phone could be called iPhone 3GS. I guess we’re going forward are going to watch out for John Gruber’s predictions!
So now that new iPad is out we naturally were watching this “name calling” ability again – and it turns out that when go back and look at what John Gruber has been saying recently – through the query Quotation John Gruber 2010 we find that even an “Apple God” (per below) can be wrong – in this case only 6-7 days before the event.
You might enjoy this article on the iPad name elaborating on this.
However, before you write off John Gruber he was right on other things regarding this release, perhaps more important such,
So – who called iPad? We find early sources using this name through the query Quotation iPad and exploring the earliest hits – for example TechRadar ran a piece by Adam Hartley called “Borders denies all knowledge of Apple ‘iPad'” back in August. But the guy who really got it early was a blogger at Google who back in 2002 already wrote “… This July: Meet iPad…”
Arguably the name iPad is a bit less distinct than iPhone 3GS and the ability to use it as a way to determine source credibility may not be as strong.
Finally: Apple’s stock price jumped $4-5 at time of announcement. We’re starting to amass a data set of product release events that is pretty interesting – doing a correlation between product releases, the buzz surrounding them, and equity pricing/volatility data would be quite interesting! Any takers?