Optionality on the Future
By Jason Hines on September 2, 2009
Predictions are hard. We’re used to weather predictions, stock market predictions, pollen predictions, etc.. When predicting events we need to think a bit differently – many are binary in outcome (either Obama or McCain wins the election) or our prediction is not so much whether some specific will happen but really just whether something will happen. Also – it can be good or bad and it can be good or bad relative to our expectations (and many other variations on that theme).
We like Apple in this blog since there are always speculations regarding the company, its products, and its officers. In SiliconValley.com we can read today
“…Apple will hold a press event in San Francisco next week, most likely to announce updates to its lineup of iPod music players…” and “…Every September since 2005, the Cupertino iPod company has updated its lineup, typically at a press event…”
Wouldn’t you want to be able to make such analysis and predictions? Asking Recorded Future Apple Next Week today (9/2/09) finds as a whole bunch of interesting pieces such as the below. Is Apple about to release a new iPod or a tablet computer or distribution of Beatles music?
Apple confirms music-themed launch for Sept. 9
Apple unveiled redesigned iPod Nano music – Apple confirms music-themed launch for Sept. 9. Apple Inc. has officially set Sept. 9 as the date for its next music-themed product launch event in San Francisco.
Apple: Beatles: “Discussions regarding digital distribution will continue”
We’ve even noted here that the mooted (but dont forget, still not officially confirmed) September 9 iPod product refresh Apple keynote may see music from the band at last appear on iTunes.
The interesting point here is that the “rock’n’roll event” Apple has called, is an event catalyst in itself – even if we don’t really know what will happen yet. But if we can collect what various analysts, journalists, etc. predict will happen at the event or look at what historically has happened at this event, and model what outcomes these events will have relative to for example stock volatility/price (which btw is more or less flat over last couple of weeks) then we can a) be prepared for outcomes and b) potentially hedge our positions vis’a’vis future outcomes.
Are you ready for the future? Learn more about Recorded Future’s news analytics.
As always, we welcome your comments below!