By Jason Hines on September 14, 2009
As a follow-up to the recent blog entry on economic indicators, we were asked how this would compare to a Google trends search on the key word bankruptcy (rather than actual events). I think this is a great question – but it probably ultimately anwers a different but connected question. Clearly a whole bunch of people search on bankruptcy in Google and you can see in the below graph that it does respond to “general media” events such as the GM bankruptcy in June 2009 – but we’re probably seeing a lot of searches (majority?) that relate to personal bankruptcies (which could be highly interesting in themselves).
At the bottom of the chart we see news volume search for the keyword bankruptcy (not actual bankruptcy events identified by company) – and now we do run into the problem with massive amounts of “duplicates” around the GM bankruptcy which makes it quite hard to compare/trend – and accordingly hard to use as a predictor.
Perhaps the increased frequency of mentionings tells you something – but it doesn’t tell you anything about the likelyhood – or when it is supposed to happen.
As always, we welcome your comments below!