Finding Political Risk Signals in Social Media

November 16, 2012 • Chris

The following is excerpted from a blog post by Milica Begovic Radojevic at UNDP in Montenegro. The full post Social Media and Political Risk Analysis highlighting the application of Recorded Future for studying political risk can be read on their blog.

We’ve all heard it many times before and I’ll repeat it: we live in an age of constant disruption. Being caught off guard has slowly become a part of the everyday parlance. This is painfully true in development. A conflict or a disaster can set back years of development.

A sudden drop in unemployment can have unpredictable and long lasting impacts on health, education and productivity years after it takes place. So we are on a constant lookout for methods that would give us the smallest hint about the upcoming changes and signals that something is ‘cooking’ so we can better prepare.

A growing number of private sector companies and, increasingly, development organizations, are looking at tools to augment their current ability to monitor the external environment to detect potential anomalous patterns.

A whole new generation of companies is growing to meet the demand for this type of intelligence. But for all the new gadgets, no single one can replace human intelligence, the analyst’s experience, intuition and expertise that contextualize the investigation – though it can help make smart people, well, smarter.

UNDP and Recorded Future tested whether their methods for analyzing big data, the vast amount of public source information, can make our organization better at detecting early warning signs.

Read the full post: Social Media and Political Risk Analysis